Goal: Explore the effect of the size of the gene pool (i.e., genetic diversity) on response of the population to an IRS intervention.
Seasonality is incorporated into the dynamics.
IRS: IRS is applied yearly from the end of the dry sesaon to the end of the wet season (days 120-300), with a 90% coverage. The intervention increases the mortality of adult hosts and is implemented with a deterministic model.
Design:
Each combination of factors has 10 runs.
I also ran low transmission, this is not presented here.
This example is for: Immune selection with gene pool size of 12000 with no IRS (control; black) and 5-year IRS (green). The time series shows that while transmission recovers to pre-intervention levels (n_total_bites), the diversity (n-alleles, n_circulating_genes, n_circulating_strains) and epidemiology (meanMOI, prevalence) do not.
This is a more detailed comparison for the same level of diversity for the four experiments.
This is an example with a 5-year IRS. The higher the diversity, the weaker the effect of the IRS, especially on prevalence.